When is Bubble not a Bubble?

In a basic lack of willingness to go all the way, analysts and experts keep tracing the current financial conditions back to the 'housing bubble' or the 'subprime mess.'  The general idea, as we all know by now, is that lenders spent the last decade and a half giving out money to people who had no business getting it.  It was only a matter of time before the chickens came home to roost on these shaky earners, with adjustable rates and general economic stagnation overtaking them, creating the orgy of defaults and collapse of value we're seeing now. The bad paper from these subprime loans was spread all around the financial system, via exotic bundles and swaps, so that their general non-performance is now threatening to bring down the whole house of cards.  

The mood among economists and investors strangely oscillates between nervous panic and calm reassurance.  One minute, a wide-eyed hedge fund guy will be on CNN, saying that he is "scared, really really scared" about the entire system coming down.  But then, over on MSNBC, a couple professorial types assure us that there is much in the American economy that remains real and productive, and financial troubles alone cannot affect that overall solidity. And then to complicate things, our Presidential candidates muddy the waters in their efforts to draw attention to their economic bona fides, floating various interpretations of the crisis and proposing alternate stimulus plans.  But all in all, even despite fairly widespread nausea, the general sense is that if we can just weather this storm and let the 'bad paper' from the subprime fiasco work its way through the system, we'll eventually get back to normal.  We may need some new regulatory toughness, and a stopgap stimulus plan to jumpstart some economic activity, not to mention the couple trillion in bailout money the federal government just laid out.  But in a few years, the storm will have passed, housing values will have 'recovered,' and America can skip heartily down its suburban lanes again, driving hybrid cars to their new jobs as wind-turbine mechanics.  

Would that it were so....

The basic blind-spot among analysts and economists, even the 'liberal' ones, is that uncomfortable Peak Oil problem that lurks beneath the housing bubble, real estate, and living patterns in general.  The unfortunate fact is that we have building the wrong kind of economy and society for the last 50 years or so, and the things we need to do fix the system do not lie within the current mainstream intellectual and policy toolbox.  The 'subprime mess' is simply one part of the whole unraveling American Algorithm, a set of institutions, long-term trends, and attitudes that simply do not hang together any more.  Housing prices are not going to 'recover,' in any meaningful sense.  Even if they go up again nominally, it will likely be the result of hyper-inflation, and the increased numbers will not be matched by equivalent rises in wages.  Economic trends in general are not going to return to 'normal' or 'healthy,' except maybe for the super-elite and large corporations.  For regular folks, steadily declining conditions will be the new norm, unless truly radical changes are made.

Let's recall what the long-term trends are that have led to the current 'crisis':
  • For decades, the American economy has grown at an impressive clip.  Growth has never been the problem
  • For technological (think computers), financial (think uber-robust instruments for moving huge sums of money), and political/cultural (think American aversion to high taxes, especially on the wealthy), the monetary rewards of all this growth have bee funneled upwards, so that economic power is now concentrated at the very top, in ratios similar to the Gilded Age
  • During this same time period of robust growth and hyper-concentration of wealth, the socioeconomic consequences of this arrangement were kept muted by incredibly cheap oil prices. 
  • As a result, the American economy itself has become hollowed out.  Farming, manufacturing, and decentralized craft/shopkeeper culture were allowed to atrophy, leaving just those portions of the 'service' or 'new' economy that were dedicated to building and maintaining suburban sprawl and its myriad accouterments
  • The keystone factor in all of this was cheap energy.  Low oil prices gave every major facet of the economy an artificially-healthy appearance.  Food was cheap, so farming could go by the wayside.  Transport of goods from China was cheap, so manufacturing could be let go of.  Gas was cheap, so houses could be built anywhere, and daily commutes could lengthen without much trouble. 
  • In the suburban consumer boom decades, the healthy glow of the economy facilitated the complete corporate capture of the federal government, and the commensurate decline in popular involvement in civic culture.  Americans became almost criminally ignorant of domestic and international political affairs, and general cultural dumbness reached new heights. 

Put all these factors together, and we can see that present problems are not going to magically go away, like a rat through a snake's digestive tract.  What we have now is the end result of decades of unfolding trends and forces.  We have built all of our institutions, expectations, attitudes, and programs around conditions that do not pertain any more.  Suburban and exurban houses are never going to be used like piggy banks again, with people borrowing on home equity to finance excessive current consumption.  The green economy and renewable energy are not going to allow us to run all of the oil-dependent systems in the same way, as Jim Kunstler so ably explains.  College degrees are not going to be tickets to the good life of semi-luxury any more (as if they ever really were), and 'full employment' will recede into the past as a realistic goal.

In short, the current financial crisis can be seen as the birth-pangs of a new reality.  We can certainly try to turn things around with stimulus packages, national health care, green industry, etc.  And I don't doubt that all kinds of cool stuff will continue to be invented, to everyone's continuing amazement.  But the scale at which we do things and the basic socioeconomic units that make up society will change.  Collectivity and decentralization will become the norm, and no amount of effort to preserve the one person-one job/one family-one dwelling social form will able to withstand the onslaught of new circumstances.


 

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