Lifeboats -- Part 1
As we are wont to do every so often, let's take a bit of time to take stock of where we are, compare conditions on the ground to the general interpretive framework running through this blog, and highlight some areas of hope for the future. I guess my posts do tend towards the pessimistic, so we'll try to find some bright spots on the horizon.
Clearly, we're in the depths of a hellish maelstrom. The DOW plunged to its lowest level in 12 years yesterday. The public is furious over AIG getting more bailout money after posting the largest loss ($62 billion) in US corporate history. Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, will reportedly lay the blame for the global recession on the US tomorrow, in a speech before Congress. Ford reported auto sales declines of 48% today, and home sales were down almost 8% in January. Oh yeah, and just for fun, global warming is proceeding much faster than all recent estimates indicate. In an earlier post, I described our situation as Concentric Circles of Collapse, a kind of Russian nesting doll set of interlinked and embedded catastrophes. On the surface, climate change might seem unconnected to mortgage foreclosures, swollen prisons, and strife in Gaza. But all of our problems are actually connected, ultimately tracing back to the unsustainable lifestyles, economies, and social forms we have been building in the industrialized world over the last few decades, especially in America.
Into these negative news waters news wade the scions of the American Right and Left. Lacking the intellectual tools and/or moral courage to tell the people the truth about the bankrupt American Algorithm, and shackled by a primitive winner-take-all electoral system with its two-headed-hydra party structure, our public leaders spin pleasing scapegoat narratives that demonize the opposition and pander to the still substantial but deeply unfounded popular pride in all things American. Conservatives trace all of our troubles back to FDRs socialism and the hippie abandonment of God, Country, and proper penis-in-vagina sex. Bobby Jindal warbles the old refrain of hard-workin', honest, gumption-oozing regular folk, besieged by the demon bureaucrats at every turn. Liberals, for their part, blame Reagan, Gingrich, the Bushes, and evil corporations for derailing the liberal project that had steadily expanded the rights of women, minorities, and other marginalized groups. Despite mountains of evidence that, for decades, the Democrats have sold their constituents down the river for easy corporate cash, they still have the gall to pose as populists and reprimand conservatives for their backwardness.
These scapegoat tales rage on today, and are better described as theodicies than as ideologies per se. Their function is to acknowledge popular outrage, channel it into an explanatory framework, and then blame lack of substantive change on the obstructions of the enemy. They are essentially theological explanations for sociopolitical evil in the world -- evil which will never, like its actual demonic counterpart, go away. The Republican and Democratic schemes, whether presented as "reform" or "progress," are really about place-holding and protecting entrenched power, while the underlying mechanisms of technology, economy, finance, and ecology work out their long-term internal logics.
So that is where we are today. Obama and company are trying a massive New Deal Redux, in a desperate attempt to "restart" the frozen, poisoned system. And predictably, conservatives are applying Reaganism Redux, pounding their fists into their palms and railing forth about wasteful government bureaucracies and American socialism. The general public sentiment right now is that American Conservatism is temporarily bankrupt of substantive ideas. After all, how many Ann Coulter screeds can one read before finally reaching intellectual exhaustion. I mean, we get it: you think that liberals are evil, or traitors, or godless, or whatever. Great. But aside from selling millions of books, and raking in tons of dough, is Coulterism or Limbaughism really doing anything constructive? Not really -- and public opinion is reflective of the general populace's frustration with faux outrage and snarky bullshit.
Clearly, we're in the depths of a hellish maelstrom. The DOW plunged to its lowest level in 12 years yesterday. The public is furious over AIG getting more bailout money after posting the largest loss ($62 billion) in US corporate history. Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, will reportedly lay the blame for the global recession on the US tomorrow, in a speech before Congress. Ford reported auto sales declines of 48% today, and home sales were down almost 8% in January. Oh yeah, and just for fun, global warming is proceeding much faster than all recent estimates indicate. In an earlier post, I described our situation as Concentric Circles of Collapse, a kind of Russian nesting doll set of interlinked and embedded catastrophes. On the surface, climate change might seem unconnected to mortgage foreclosures, swollen prisons, and strife in Gaza. But all of our problems are actually connected, ultimately tracing back to the unsustainable lifestyles, economies, and social forms we have been building in the industrialized world over the last few decades, especially in America.
Into these negative news waters news wade the scions of the American Right and Left. Lacking the intellectual tools and/or moral courage to tell the people the truth about the bankrupt American Algorithm, and shackled by a primitive winner-take-all electoral system with its two-headed-hydra party structure, our public leaders spin pleasing scapegoat narratives that demonize the opposition and pander to the still substantial but deeply unfounded popular pride in all things American. Conservatives trace all of our troubles back to FDRs socialism and the hippie abandonment of God, Country, and proper penis-in-vagina sex. Bobby Jindal warbles the old refrain of hard-workin', honest, gumption-oozing regular folk, besieged by the demon bureaucrats at every turn. Liberals, for their part, blame Reagan, Gingrich, the Bushes, and evil corporations for derailing the liberal project that had steadily expanded the rights of women, minorities, and other marginalized groups. Despite mountains of evidence that, for decades, the Democrats have sold their constituents down the river for easy corporate cash, they still have the gall to pose as populists and reprimand conservatives for their backwardness.
These scapegoat tales rage on today, and are better described as theodicies than as ideologies per se. Their function is to acknowledge popular outrage, channel it into an explanatory framework, and then blame lack of substantive change on the obstructions of the enemy. They are essentially theological explanations for sociopolitical evil in the world -- evil which will never, like its actual demonic counterpart, go away. The Republican and Democratic schemes, whether presented as "reform" or "progress," are really about place-holding and protecting entrenched power, while the underlying mechanisms of technology, economy, finance, and ecology work out their long-term internal logics.
So that is where we are today. Obama and company are trying a massive New Deal Redux, in a desperate attempt to "restart" the frozen, poisoned system. And predictably, conservatives are applying Reaganism Redux, pounding their fists into their palms and railing forth about wasteful government bureaucracies and American socialism. The general public sentiment right now is that American Conservatism is temporarily bankrupt of substantive ideas. After all, how many Ann Coulter screeds can one read before finally reaching intellectual exhaustion. I mean, we get it: you think that liberals are evil, or traitors, or godless, or whatever. Great. But aside from selling millions of books, and raking in tons of dough, is Coulterism or Limbaughism really doing anything constructive? Not really -- and public opinion is reflective of the general populace's frustration with faux outrage and snarky bullshit.
But we would be mistaken in thinking that American Liberalism is in much better condition. Yes, Obama swept into office and is riding high on great approval numbers. And Dems control both houses of Congress and the Presidency for the first time in a while. And yes, they are pushing through economic stimulus, a pro-Palestinian-state stance (as of this week), and an impressive slate of Bush reversals (Iraq, Gitmo, Freedom of Information policies, anti-torture). But don't be deceived by the ambitious agenda. Underneath all of the rhetoric of Green jobs, health care reform, beefed-up financial oversight, and the like, is a stubborn refusal to actually tell the truth about our current conditions. And like the fruit of the poisonous tree idea, no long term success can emerge out of fundamentally flawed premises. Since the liberal and conservative interpretations of our recent history are both fantastical theodicies with scapegoat plot-drivers, all the bailouts, tax breaks, stimulus, reform, and responsible spending in the world will not set things right.
These are the general themes which need to be acknowledged before we can approach any kind of way forward:
- Human beings and our immediate ancestors have been strolling around the planet for millions of years. This long period was characterized by steady-flow economies and their companion social structures: low population densities, mobile tribal forms, and basic ecological equilibrium.
- With agriculture, the dynamics of civilization took hold: overpopulation, feast-famine cycles, social hierarchies, slavery, class exploitation, density-driven diseases and epidemics, and periodic ecological collapse. Despite these disruptions, early agricultural societies were still roughly tied to natural flows and not stock exploitation (see Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen and Herman Daly on the fundamentals of ecological economics).
- Modern industrial civilization is an utter anomaly, a temporary historical disruption based completely on the unique properties of fossil fuels. No alternative energy source can preserve or replicate the structures we have created with fossil fuels. Nuclear energy, biofuels, solar, wind -- these will all be important parts of our energy mix going forward. But none of these energy sources has the unique combination of flexibility, fungibility, and power that oil has. Consider what we do with oil: run our cars, heat our homes, build our roads (the roads themselves and the equipment to lay them down are oil-dependent), fertilize and move our food, manufacture our drugs and electronics, make our plastics -- on and on. We may get electricity from nuclear power, but can you make a plastic turkey baster out of it? We may use biofuel to run some of our cars, but can we also make the roads themselves out of corn or switchgrass? Windmills are nice, but will the factories that make the huge turbine parts be run on wind power themselves? In short, everything that we do is completely tailored to the uniqueness of oil. For a much more exhaustive and compelling picture of the non-substitutability of oil, see Jim Kunstler's The Long Emergency, and check out his home site here: www.kunstler.com
- Peak Oil is here. Actually, my own feeling is that it actually hit sometime around 2005 -- so we are really PostPeak, thus the name of this blog. On the downslope of Peak Oil, all of the large, complex systems that were built in the cheap oil age will falter. We will not be able to run big business, long supply lines, bloated central governments, and huge militaries on alternative energies. As we have seen over the last couple years, the price volatility of oil will wreak havoc on global economies and international politics. When prices soar, oil importers take a beating and their petro-soaked lifestyles nosedive. The resulting economic downturn causes demand destruction, which then lurches oil prices down to glutted lows, which then in turn spreads ruinous conditions around the oil exporting nations (who tend to have young, restless, angry populations). Expect a lot more of these violent swings we bump our rumps down the PostPeak declined plane.
- Struggle as we will, we will not be able to bring back the full-employment, hyper-consumptive, sprawled out social form of the last half of the 20th century. Our way of life, though we declared it non-negotiable, was completely unsustainable, profoundly unnatural, and fundamentally unsatisfying to us as human beings. The near future will look very different from what we are desperately clinging to right now. I firmly believe that ten years from now, maybe sooner, people will be living much more collectively, by necessity if not choice.
Next time, we'll look at what a more collective future might look like. We are already seeing the beginnings of this search for social lifeboats. Large numbers of seniors will be moving back in with their adult children, as general financial collapse destroys retirement accounts. Young adults are increasingly moving back with their parents, as the brutal job market continues its atrophy. Another related sign is the surge in US military enlistment over the last six months, as bleak economic horizons send our young men and women in search of safer options.
But ad hoc living arrangements and other piecemeal attempts to harness collective power will prove inadequate to meet the full range of socioeconomic challenges we are facing. We'll need bolder steps in energy generation, military deployment, property ownership, tax policy, and other areas. And most basically, we'll need a cultural sea change that explodes the One Person-One Job/One Family-One Dwelling social form, replacing it with a larger home base from which people can approach the wider economy and biosphere.

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