The Dangerous Middle Ground - Part 3

Last time, we looked at how the emerging Tea Party movement will likely make a large impact on federal policy in the upcoming years. As the economy continues its 'jobless recovery,' the stark disparity between what is good for Big Business and what is good for regular people will become more undeniable. The Republican establishment will finally find itself unable to co-opt the rage of the conservative base, and the resulting outcry for a downsized federal government will gather momentum. Ayn Rand will continue her unwarranted return to prominence, as politicians of all stripes ride the Tea Party waves of unrest, and calls for cutting off the parasites and leeches will become louder and shriller. Unfortunately, if the political winds carry us towards this John Galt style of downsizing, the results will be gruesome, and the American experiment will quickly be rent asunder.

So what looks like a common sense middle ground alternative to partisan extremism is in actuality a dangerous radicalism itself. The irrational desire for theological laissez-faire to be true, regardless of what economic history and experience actually demonstrate, is likely to result in pathological scapegoating and pretzelish rationalization, as the hoped-for capitalist utopia fails to materialize. A crueller culture will surely emerge, with the swelling poor (the former middle-class) having to find new ways of eking out an existence, cobbling together spotty official employment and black-economy enterprises. The Ayn Rand set will surely say that this pain is just transitional, as wide swaths of over-dependent Americans get weaned off of their socialist laziness.

As we have seen many times on this blog, you could drive a tractor trailer through the blind spot in this type of conservative thinking. The idea that Big Government is on one side, hampering the entrepreneurial activities of righteous businesses (of all sizes) on the other side, is utter nonsense. Big Government and Big Business have essentially fused, and have designed an all-encompassing system that rewards and consolidates their own bigness. To think that shrinking down the federal government will somehow fix the problem of concentrated private power is the highest level of delusion. The corporate power-set will find ways to preserve its position, regardless of the explicit 'size' of the government itself. Tea Party downsizing will not in and of itself reignite a broader spread of resources.

That being said, I do think that we are headed for profound downscaling in our economy and society. Government at all levels must shrink, as will most other arenas of centralized power. In this sense, our ways of organizing will become more medieval and dispersed, and the local community will take center stage in the next American chapter. Readers can peruse other pieces in this blog (especially the posts on
Community Living) for a fuller picture of what these arrangements might look like.

But the question for this series of posts is: In the present Tea Party moment, when all of the momentum is towards downsizing, what should liberals propose as the proper role of the federal government? Right now, Obama and other Dems are really lost at sea. They're taking a huge gamble that the return of economic growth will (shit, must) eventually trickle down to the hiring process and get people back to work. In short, they're desperately clinging to the notion that the current recession is just another chapter in the normal business cycle. Sure, it's a bad one, and a long one, and is the result of some disastous policy trends. But certainly, if that Holy Grail indicator of GDP continues to nudge upwards, how can the labor markets and our global partners/competitors not respond in a positive way? After all, almost everyone, even China, wants the US to return to full economic health, so that global inventories will have someplace to go.

It is only in this light that Obama's seeming wishy-washiness makes sense, especially on the issue of the Bush-era tax cuts. As this past week demonstrated, it's starting to look like the Dems will acquiesce on these cuts altogether, extending them for everyone for at least a couple years. Sure, they know that this will blow a huge hole in the budget. But I think that they're so convinced that economic growth will finally spark job creation that they are willing to take the tax cut hit because they think that overall revenues will rise as 'the recovery' takes hold. Then of course, they will ride the tide of economic rejuvenation to electoral triumph in 2012, despite all the Republican obstruction.

A dangerous gamble, and I'm fairly sure it will fail. We just had a horrific November jobs report --job creation was anemic, and the baseline unemployment rate went back up to 9.8%. And perhaps even more telling, almost 42% of the unemployed, a full 6.3 million people, are long-term -- that is, they have been out of work for over 27 weeks. What we're seeing is that corporations and other large businesses, especially banks and financial companies (gee, how did that happen?), are able to do perfectly well without rehiring at significant levels. This seems to portend a long future of scaled-back labor ratios, a full-blown rearrangement of work within our culture and economy.

So what should liberals be looking at for policy recommendations? What is realistic in today's political landscape? Well certainly, pleadings of Paul Krugman notwithstanding, more stimulus is off the table. That ship has sailed, and things would have to get to Depression-Era desperation levels for another significant stimulus package to happen. And even then, who knows? Also, as we're seeing, significant tax increases on the wealthy and on large corporations are not going to happen either. Let's keep in mind that almost everything that everyone talks about with regards to this crisis would be utterly moot if the United States was willing to engage in so-called 'class warfare' and tax the super-rich at rates that make sense. If the wealthy and powerful were taxed at levels that even remotely correspond to the value that they take out of the national economy, then we'd be fine. But of course, the main result of the federal government's capture by corporate America is that tax and business law is explicitly written to shunt money upwards. It's just not conceivable that all of this pro-corporate legislation will be scrapped by the very politicians who continually surf the waves of corporate cash into office year after year.

So with stimulus and tax hikes off the table, what's left for liberals to espouse? A difficult question to be sure, and I'm certainly not qualified to answer fully, being a layman. But here are some ideas:

  • Push for military downsizing: Dems should capitalize on the government waste theme and extend it to the bloated military. Dig up all of the relevant global stats on the ridiculously outsized US military footprint, and pound it home that shrinking this down is the responsible thing to do. Dems should team up with Republican allies like Ron Paul to add bipartisan credibility to this endeavor. I don't think that liberals will find a more conducive time to get this message across.
  • Get tough with the Fed: the Federal Reserve contributed plenty to the current crisis, especially with Alan Greenspan's refusal to see the housing bubble for what it was. Anti-Fed sentiment is currently high, but the Fed certainly isn't going to be abolished any time soon. So Obama and leaders from both parties of Congress should make it clear that the Fed needs to start taking action to get more money into the hands of local banks and businesses. How can they do this? I really don't know. But clearly, the Fed's flooding of the big banks and investment companies with cash is not resulting in this money filtering down to borrowers at the local level. Our politicians should play hardball with the Fed, and demand that money be directly loaned to local credit unions, thrifts, and other small-scale financing organizations. The public already sees the Fed as a kind of secretive arm of Wall Street. Dems and Republicans should threaten to turn the Fed loose to the dogs of popular rage unless their policy path is altered to aid the struggling masses.
  • Pass Real Mortgage Relief: The current Republican script is calling for everyone to sacrifice for the health of the American economy (of course, in my cynical opinion, they really don't mean this. When they say 'everyone,' they don't actually mean the rich and powerful. They only mean the 'everyone' who did something wrong in their eyes, like taking out a bigger mortgages than they could afford, or applying for a ninth credit card to pay for groceries). But taking them at their word, let's say that they really do mean that everyone should sacrifice. Well then, banks need to take a hit and repeg their mortgage holdings to existing property values. Yah, I know that this would result in massive losses for the banks, and they would throw everything they have at stopping it. And Republicans could likely play it off as class warfare or some other gobbledegook. That's why the Dems should aggressively push it as a proposal to restructure all outstanding mortgages, not just for people in trouble. One of the biggest talking points of the Tea Party and its followers is that good, upstanding taxpayers are footing the bill for the deadbeats (think of the ubiquitous HONK IF I'M PAYING YOUR MORTGAGE bumper stickers). That's why this mortgage restructuring should be pitched as something for everyone, paid for by the irresponsible and reckless Wall Street banks that got us in trouble in the first place. And as an added gain, the banks writing down their mortgages could recoup their losses by a program of staggered federal tax cuts. This would have the added rhetorical bonus of fitting in with the overall Tea Party tax-cutting program. Again, is this likely to happen? No, but Dems could make real hay  with it in the eyes of the public, and might be able to at least leverage a different, lesser deal.
  • Beef Up the Small Business Administration: Public discourse in the age of the Tea Party is all about small businesses. They are praised as the biggest job creators, as the entrepreneurial lifeblood of the nation, and as the incubator of the crucial American values of hard work and sacrifice. Is some of this overblown? Of course. Most small businesses fail, not due to draconian federal taxation, but simply because they are poorly run. Or they're just bad ideas in the first place. But in any case, the exaltation of small business will continue, and liberals should take advantage of this opportunity by explicitly calling for the transfer of government largesse from Big Business to Small Business. In other words, join in with the Tea Party crowd in highlighting the massive troughs of pork and subsidy that go to prop up large corporations. Make a specific plea for these subsidies to be cut in half, with the remaining being shunted directly to the Small Business Administration, to help local companies thrive. This should be paired with the above point on pushing the Fed to aid small business. Again, this might be portrayed as class warfare by some, but if Dems continually point out the qualitative difference between Big and Small business, then they should be inoculated.
  • Empty the Prisons: Say what? Yah, I know, it's weird. But the true unemployment rate of the United States is masked by the steady rise in the proportion of our citizens who are incarcerated (we're currently the world leader in imprisonment). As mentioned many times in this blog, our prisons are largely dumping grounds for the economically superfluous. If you include even a conservative estimate of the economically-imprisoned, then we're really looking at a full unemployment rate of close to 20%. Dems should put a full-court press on portraying our prisons as massive government waste, as corporate subsidy through non-conventional channels. Pound home that these people need to be returned to the wider society so that they can contribute economically, instead of being a drain. And in the spirit of paying for every spending proposal, Dems should take existing prison budgets and come up with a five-year plan to move 75% of that money to creating bridge programs for getting convicts back into the mainstream. And again, these programs could be dovetailed with the small business initiatives above.
  • Massive National Zoning and Rent-Law Changes: Think of the condition of many of our cities and towns. They are hollowed out, with empty houses and storefronts everywhere. In Detroit, large sections of the city are abandoned completely, returning to scrub grass and wild sumac. With the disappearance of our manufacturing and farming cultures, the socioeconomic infrastructure that went along with these ways of life is all but gone. But our laws surrounding land usage and zoning have essentially stayed the same, so that it has somehow become, surreally, more lucrative to leave land and lots empty, instead of lowering rents to get tenants in. In almost every case, the landowner or landlord can make more money from depreciation tax breaks than from simply lowering the price. This becomes a self-reinforcing feedback loop that spreads disuse and neglect to entire regions. And before you know it, there's a development dead zone, and nothing can be brought back at all, even if there were some demand. This needs to change, and it could be changed, relatively cheaply. Washington should work with states to craft unified policies on land use, wielding eminent domain to get their programs enforced. Unused land, lots, and buildings should be turned loose to public lottery if improvements go unmade, or if property sits vacant for a relatively short period of time. Regular citizens should be able to win these properties (paying small, nominal processing fees), and then they should be hooked into the small business programs mentioned above to help them occupy the new areas in an economically-viable way.

Well, that's enough for now. But you get the drift. Democrats need to find a way to harness the rising popular desire for downsizing, tax cutting, and budget busting. They just need to turn the smaller pools of money toward endeavors that actually stand a chance of helping people, instead of just throwing them on the pyre of Ayn Randian insanity. At every step, Dems should work with sympathetic conservatives, including Tea Partiers, to get real proposals on the table. And Dems should be ready to plead their case in every public forum possible, showing how they have a true decentralizing agenda that will work. Liberals should portray themselves as the smart devolvers, with things of real value to contribute to the one-sided Tea Party platform.
 
Of course, this will necessitate Obama and his buddies finally giving up the idea that economic growth will someday magically kick in and return us to the former life of full employment and maximum consumption. That truly is a Utopia, in that it exists nowhere.  

 

 

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